Залежність продуктивності аграрного виробництва України від зміни термічного режиму

Abstract

Проаналізовано динаміку зміни середньорічної температури повітря у 24-х регіонах України в період 2011 − 2020 рр. Досліджено залежність між урожайністю основних сільськогосподарських культур та показником середньорічної температури повітря. Проаналізовано регіональні особливості цієї залежності. Проведено ранжування регіонів країни відповідно до ступеня кореляції між середньорічною температурою та урожайністю сільськогосподарських культур.

The dynamics of changes in the average annual air temperature in 24 regions of Ukraine in the period 2011 - 2020 is analyzed. The correlation between the yield of major crops and the average annual air temperature is studied. The regional features of this dependence are analyzed. The regions of the country are ranked according to the degree of correlation between the average annual temperature and crop yields. Agriculture is largely dependent on natural factors, the most important of which is the change in agro-climatic conditions due to modern climate change. The main manifestation of modern climate change is an increase in air temperature, and in Ukraine the temperature increase is much more intense than in most regions of the world. Given the significant contribution of the agricultural sector to the economy of Ukraine, the problem of the dependence of agricultural production on changes in the thermal regime is of particular relevance. The article discusses the impact of changes in the thermal regime on the territory of Ukraine on the productivity of major agricultural crops. The average annual air temperature is used as an indicator characterizing the thermal regime of the territory. The dynamics of the average annual temperature in twenty-four regions of Ukraine in the period from 2011 to 2020 is analyzed. In particular, the regions of the most intensive increase in temperature have been identified. The relationship between the average annual air temperature and the productivity of the main agricultural crops, which include potatoes, sunflowers, as well as cereals and legumes, vegetables, fruit and berries, has been studied. To identify the relationship between temperature and yield, the method of pair correlation was used. The calculations were carried out using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. The study revealed significant differences in the degree of dependence of the yield of different crops on temperature conditions. It has been proven that the nature of the influence of thermal conditions on yield can vary significantly depending on the type of crop. In particular, the current increase in temperature favorably affects the efficiency of growing cereals and legumes and, at the same time, leads to a significant decrease in potato yield. It is shown that the dependence of the yield of different crops on air temperature is characterized by significant territorial disproportions. Wherein, the regions with the highest indicators of correlation dependence are located mainly in the west and northwest of Ukraine. The regions of Ukraine were ranked in accordance with the total degree of correlation between the average annual air temperature and the yield of selected agricultural crops. When ranking regions according to the degree of influence of the thermal factor, the arithmetic mean of the absolute values (modules) of the correlation coefficients was used. According to the ranking results, the regions were grouped. It has been proved that when analyzing territorial disproportions, it is necessary to take into account the differences in the agricultural specialization of the regions, since the specialization of crop production causes significant differences in the sown areas of crops with different dependence on thermal factors. Based on the study, we can conclude that the current change in the thermal regime already has a significant impact on the process of transformation of agriculture, which, in particular, is manifested in a change in the agricultural specialization of the regions. For example, in regions specializing in the cultivation of vegetable crops, an increase in air temperature leads to a decrease in the efficiency of agricultural production. In turn, the decrease in the efficiency of agricultural production leads to a decrease in the volume of production. At the same time, the increase in the thermal resources of Polesye makes it possible to grow sunflower and other heat-loving crops in this zone. The novelty of the study is to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the influence of the thermal factor on the yield of various crops. At the same time, it should be noted that the main result of the study is obtaining a numerical characteristic of the degree of correlation dependence, which allows analyzing the degree of dependence of different crops on temperature conditions, as well as identifying and analyzing territorial disproportions in the distribution of this dependence.